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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It often serves as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest field is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime also-rans improving collectively. During an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing five other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still